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A Common Flaw in Analyzing Equity FX Risk

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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Thursday, September 18, 2014

If you are trading foreign importers, exporters, or financial firms, you may not know the true FX risk of your portfolio:


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3 comments on article "A Common Flaw in Analyzing Equity FX Risk"

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 Marcel Ndje, CFA, FRM, Senior Manager Global Risk Management

 Friday, September 19, 2014



Interesting. I have a few questions on this: Sometimes companies will partially hedge or completely hedge their revenues, is it taken into account in your analysis? It might be that Toyota's hedging program partly explains this negative correlation between share its price and its local currency (JPY)... A beta above one might also suggest that you are over exposed to the local currency... but is it reliable as it is highly volatile in nature and would change as the volatilities of both your investment and your local currency.


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 Greg Kapoustin, Principal at AlphaBetaWorks; Senior Analyst at Burlingame Asset Management, LLC

 Saturday, September 20, 2014



Some tricky questions:

- Company FX hedging: The effect is included in our analysis, to the extent share price reflects it. Suppose an exporter E with JPY costs completely hedged out its non-JPY revenues. One would then expect the value of E to vary little with JPY and E’s local currency beta to be 0. This is similar to the situation for most US companies, not heavily reliant on exports – their typical local currency beta (last chart) is near 0.

- The stability of local currency betas: This varies. For Toyota, the exposure is very statistically significant and rather stable. In fact, variation in JPYUSD explains over 45% of the variance of the share price, net of market and sector effects.

- High positive local currency betas: These are rare. One tends to see these for importers with very heavy local currency exposure, or in EM companies highly sensitive to external capital flows.


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 Marcel Ndje, CFA, FRM, Senior Manager Global Risk Management

 Sunday, September 21, 2014



Sounds like a good explanation. Thanks. MN

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TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
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