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Dollar vs World Forex Analysis

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 Mark Brown mark@markbrown.com, Global Quantitative Financial Research, International Institutional Trading, Algorithmic Modeling.

 Friday, July 19, 2013

I just did a study to compare the world's major currencies against the dollar. I adjusted all the data and came up with an interesting chart. http://www.markbrown.com/linkedin/pics/20130719-004.png


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4 comments on article "Dollar vs World Forex Analysis"

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 Daniel Boutrin, Fixed Income and Credit Quantitative & Qualitative Research at Banque de France

 Friday, July 19, 2013



Your graph is rude toward what FED or other Central Banks are doing "too much...fix... not enought ... fix... too much .. fix ... :D


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 Mark Brown mark@markbrown.com, Global Quantitative Financial Research, International Institutional Trading, Algorithmic Modeling.

 Friday, July 19, 2013



lol maybe they need my chart so they can level out and quit guessing.


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 Daniel Boutrin, Fixed Income and Credit Quantitative & Qualitative Research at Banque de France

 Saturday, July 20, 2013



People usually think, finance is very modern where actually it is not, most daily work is based on old fashion rules and even when commercial bank invent new deal, they still have to deal with the old fashion hub. I can meet in corridors people who actually witnessed the telephony entrance in the bank, then computer, then personnal computer , then ethernet, then middleware, then database, then email , then internet , then electronic signature, then virtual deal, then multi language contract and today multi entities, multi countries, multi language, multi laws contract. Most politicians are out of league for technology understanding, out of league for deal tracing, out of league for multi-foreign-entity legal agreement, out of league for balance sheet analysis.



This issue called procyclicality ( procyclicité in french ) was supposed to be reduced when Bale II will be used plenty. Which I doubt will be done, as most actors didn't include shock effects in measurement... :/


http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/publications/r_0904f.pdf


http://www.bis.org/bcbs/events/rtf04gordy_howells.pdf


http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/10/Fic/dt1028e.pdf



Note this is a VERY old debat between central banks and Bale II will be a a very poor attempt to try a solution.


Full bale II effect should be seen in your graph in 2016 as a bottom, which should be countered largely with the new area of finance "material transactions" ( can't be seen in balance sheet with the current norms ).


Note that mafia was using "material transactions" since decades.



My definition of material transactions is :


Exchange of services or goods using a uncorrelated transactions between 2 counterparties non registered as a client.


Mafia was dealing this way :


1 find a broker ( preferences for english one )


2 bet win/loose on whatever the broket is offering


3 call client


4 give win ticket in exchange of service/goods/whatever


5 end of transactions



New strategy of bank /virtual account manager


1. Register anonymous cash giver


2. Give electronic cash deposit signature


4. Cash giver->call his own client


5. give electronic cash deposit->new owner of cash deposit


6. End of transactions.



This service "efinance" is ruining the core business of banks, no more retailers, no more persistence of client composition, no more leverage retail base, it will explode the consumerizations of all goods and services as well as the amount of transactions done today. As of today, no central banks are ready to deal with this new form of economy.


No computer designed for, no internet capabilities, no economists, no measures ...


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 Borut Skok, Market Analyst

 Monday, July 22, 2013



@Mark, look at my Profile. There is an actuall USDJPY60M chart from my collection.

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