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Atre Trading and Gambling the same?

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 Jeff Joseph, Alternative Investments & Media

 Saturday, May 31, 2014

Trading and gambling are both fundamentally stochastic, that is unpredictable, and because of this they are often viewed negatively. We feel an “honest effort” has more predictability to it, and we may hold those who take too much risk in disdain.


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5 comments on article "Atre Trading and Gambling the same?"

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 Guy Marcelis, Consultant, Investor, Entrepreneur

 Monday, June 9, 2014



@Ken: you have just put me in peace with this group again. For now ;)


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 Jon Grah, Trading Systems Automation Expert @ AwarenessForex.com

 Monday, June 16, 2014



The definitions presented in the article between gambling and [speculative] trading were in fact very confusing. The easiest way to make the distinction is to discuss the INTENT of the participants. Gamblers are in it for the entertainment value; usually for the thrill of participating in a face paced environment. In derivatives market microstructure (according to Larry Harris), gamblers are utilitarian traders because they value the entertainment more than earnings. Gamblers may win occasionally, but lose on average.

Professional bettors and speculative traders only place [series of] trades because they expect a net profit based on the information they have gathered about the opportunity. They are profit-motivated traders because they trade specifically to profit. They cannot continue to be in business if they are poorly informed or fail to maintain systems that allow them to act on their information in a timely enough fashion.

So that's the hard difference between the two: Gamblers do it for fun/entertainment. Speculators are in it primarily for profit for themselves or their clients.


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 private private,

 Monday, June 16, 2014



For more substantive writing on the topic of gambling vs. trading, some classic works are:

"Beat The Dealer" by Ed Thorp

"Fortune's Formula" by William Poundstone

I believe these are both still in print.

The Poundstone book has an excellent discussion of Claude Shannon & John Kelly (Kelly Criteria, Kelly betting)

There are a number of well known traders who earlier in their careers hit the blackjack tables, including:

Bill Gross (Pimco)

Ed Thorp (Princeton/Newport Partners [P/NP] )

Blair Hull (Hull Trading)

Bob Bright & Don Bright (Bright Trading)

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For a more recent take on topics related to Information Theory (which is the larger topic under which falls the Kelly Criteria) I would emphatically recommend:

"The Information: A History, A Theory, A Flood" by James Gleick


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 Borut Skok, Market Analyst

 Saturday, July 5, 2014



There is a big difference between trading and gambling. I think that except the surface both of them don't have nothning in common. A litlle knowlege about the problem mislead a lot of uninformed people. On one side many people don't know on what gambling is based and on the other side even more fewer of them is in a posession of knowledge how trading really works. Additional misleading is generated by the common believing that The Random Walk Theory is really functioning. From here to thinking about inivisible hand which is being arranging stoch market for common sense isn't far away. Neither The Random Walk Theory has anything to do with trading, nor there an invisible hand has any assisting role, while gambling in an example of pure Random Walk Theory. But people don't know that. So isn't very unusual that thay mix all together.

Borut Skok


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 private private,

 Saturday, July 5, 2014



If a trader "goes on tilt" sufficient to call a 1-900-###-#### for an astrological reading to decide what kind of position to put on for SPX futures, then that really is gambling not trading. (mind you, I'm not saying that I've ever seen that ;-)

If I compared certain types of technical indicators to astrology or numerology, I'd have thousands of market technicians hounding me right off of LI.

So I won't say it... ;-)

Even a stopped clock is still right twice a day ;-)

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