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KTA Macro Weekly Wrap 20/10/17

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 Louise Griffin, Relationship Development Manager at Knightsbridge Trading Academy

 Friday, October 20, 2017

This week there were only a few clear winners and losers in the G10 currencies as investors remain uncertain over the medium-term direction of the global financial markets. One of the major themes this week was the US budget which was approved in the Senate 51-49, leading to a sharp rise in the dollar as it raised hopes that the Republicans may get the Trump's tax plans passed by this year without Democratic support. The ECB monetary policy meeting next week was another topic on investor minds as ECB speakers kept hopes that a new guidance on QE tapering will emerge. The base case now remains of asset purchases reduction to 25bn per month for the next 9 months from January 2018 which will bring the total amount of purchase next year to around 225bn; any further reduction in asset purchases will be seen as hawkish. The Japanese election is another event that will grab market attention this weekend; though we have seen a JPY downside this week the risk from the election is increasingly looking JPY positive. Shinzo Abe’s LDP is expected to min 284 seats while the coalition partner is expected to win 35 seats. A loss of 20-40 seats could be seen as a reduced mandate for Abe’s policies and may cause some JPY bounce. Elsewhere, GBP also fell despite the data being supportive of the BoE November rate hike; this could partially be due to misinterpretation of comments by the BoE members this week. In terms of the oceanic currencies we have seen a recovery for AUD helped by strong domestic data and better than expected Chinese imports. AUD is the strongest G10 currency this week though not far from USD. However, the other antipodeans currency NZD has not been as fortunate thanks to an unexpected turn of event this week in the formation of the coalition government. NZD has fallen sharply this week making it the weakest G10 currency this week, down roughly 2% versus the dollar.


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