KTA Macro Wrap 08/12/17
Louise Griffin, Relationship Development Manager at Knightsbridge Trading Academy
Friday, December 8, 2017
In the G10 currencies this week, CAD, NOK, and USD were the top gainers. The top losers were EUR and SEK, at -1.37% and -1.43% versus the dollar, respectively. The USD-Index recovered further gaining nearly 1% helped by positive developments on the US tax front. The market now expects a resolution on the tax bill as soon as 22 December. EUR was also weak as the investors were cautious ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting next week where we can expect some dovish rhetoric. GBP was also subdued as Irish border issue wasn't resolved in the first phase of talks as initially thought. That said, the EU has agreed that "sufficient progress" is made on Brexit talks and that the phase two of talks can now begin to settle trade issues. this has caused a jump in UK government bond yields as the market now believe that we are more likely to have an orderly Brexit. In the equities space this week, the Nikkei 225 has closed almost flat at 22811.08 while the European equity markets are looking end the week strongly with FTSE up 0.36%, DAX up 2.57% and CAC up 1.6%. As for US equities, we see a continued consolidation near the highs; S&P 500 and Dow Jones were trading +0.16% and 0.29% for the week. In the rates market, the US and German 10-year yields have both fallen this week with the Bund yield down 3bp to 0.31% and US 10-year yields down 4bp to 2.38%. In the energy space, the oil prices have fallen further despite further drawdowns. Looking ahead, the focus will likely remain on political news from the EU summit (Brexit talks) and US Congress (tax reforms. However, we will also have UK CPI, unemployment rate, retail sales, US CPI and Norges Bank, BoE, SNB and ECB rates decisions.