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KTA Macro Weekly Wrap 19/01/18

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 Louise Griffin, Relationship Development Manager at Knightsbridge Trading Academy

 Friday, January 19, 2018

GBP, NOK, and EUR are the top G10 gainers this week, up 2.42%, 2.08% and 1.84% versus USD so far. The dollar has continued its decline despite US yields and Equities rallying sharply this week. On Friday the dollar hit 3-year lows against a basket of currencies after fears of a US government shutdown added to the woes. Elsewhere there is now chatter of a change of stance at the BoJ; the WSJ cited that people familiar with the BoJ have said that there are concerns over communication of policy shift; the BoJ is optimistic about hitting 2% inflation target in the next 2-years and given we have policy meeting next week volatility is likely to remain high. In the equities this week, the Nikkei has closed higher by 0.65% at 23808.1 while the major European equities have traded mixed with FTSE -0.72%, DAX +1.32%, and CAC +0.03%. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have risen 1.81%, 1.99%, and 2.56%, respectively while the US 10-year yield has rallied to 2.63%, up roughly 7bp. In the energy space, the Brent has come off its $70.37 peak seen earlier in the week following a break of a short-term steep trend line on Tuesday. This was despite a drawdown of a 6.86M barrel of crude inventory reported this week. In terms of data next week, From the US, the new home sales, durable goods orders and Q4 GDP (advance) will be the key release. From Europe there is plenty of data; the Manufacturing and services PMI (flash), IFO business climate and ECB rates decision will be the top releases. Other than this, the BoJ rates decision and the New Zealand Q4 inflation rate and Canadian retail sales will be other events of interest next week.


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